Sandbagging (Forecast)

Sandbagging is deliberately setting a target or forecast lower than what a team actually expects to hit, so the eventual result reads as an over-performance. It’s a specific, common form of forecast bias, one pointed toward conservatism rather than optimism, and it’s rational for whoever’s incentives reward beating a number rather than predicting it accurately.

Sandbagging survives because it’s hard to distinguish from genuine caution without a track record: a team that’s “beaten forecast” ten quarters running is either unusually good at their job or padding the number every time. A reconciled actuals history turns that suspicion into evidence: see forecast bias and sandbagging.